A Review of Why We Fight: The Roots of War & the Paths to Peace
I first came across Chris Blattman’s writing several months ago in a blog post where he pumped the breaks on the idea that the US might be headed for Civil War. As someone who believes false polarization (or the perception that we as a nation are polarized) is a much bigger threat than our small but extreme political factions, I found the post very refreshing. Blattman called attention to the ways in which we are prone to one-dimensional caricatures of our rivals when really it is these caricatures that turn our thinking towards eschatological alarmism.
“A common pattern in sectarian and ethnic conflict is a spiral of fears, based not on what a reasoning enemy would do, but by the actions of the bogeyman in our mind. It leads to distorted thinking and conclusions.”
After reading the article, I pre-ordered Blattman’s book expecting much of the same content, but I learned a lot more as Blattman wrote a thorough review of conflict and how it does and (perhaps more importantly) does not turn into violence. It distills insights across economics, social/clinical psychology, conflict management, game theory, political science, and history while weaving in personal anecdotes from real-world experiences with gang violence on the streets of Chicago and sectarian conflict in Africa/Columbia. His central insight is that war is extremely costly, so groups will most often avoid it (a theme prominent in the book “War, Peace, & Human Nature”). But nonetheless, when war does break out, Blattman addresses what kept these groups from cooperating.
I left with two threads of takeaways that I found particularly valuable. The first thread has to do with generally how to approach solving large-scale social ills and the second has to do with specific reasons for why we wage war. We'll start with the general approach side.
Wicked Problems – Wicked problems are problems with many interdependent contributors making them seem impossible to solve. Wicked denotes the degree of difficulty in solving the problem rather than its evilness. Because the factors are often incomplete, in flux, and difficult to define, attempts to solve wicked problems can often backfire.
“And when you do try something [to fix wicked problems] it’s hard to know if it’s working. So we should expect wobbly evidence, shrimpy evidence, and innumerable failures.” (Blattman, p 224)
Piecewise reform – Given how intimidating wicked problems can be, we shouldn’t think about solving the problem completely. This is too demoralizing. Instead, we should think about taking small steps to weaken the problem. These kinds of problems need what Blattman calls “piecemeal engineers.” This approach borrowed from Karl Popper emphasizes small-scale and incremental interventions that should be continuously amended as experience suggests. This kind of piecewise reform is central to the scientific method but is often lacking amongst activists and policymakers.
5 Reasons Why War Occurs
#1 Unchecked Interests – When power is broadly dispersed throughout society, war happens less. This is true for all forms of power, be it political, social, economic, etc. Democracy, wealth equity, checks and balances, and federalism all contribute to a broader dispersal of power and thus serve to mitigate unchecked interests. Blattman calls this dispersal of power “Polycentrism”
#2 Intangible Incentives – Mostly in the realm of the ideas, maybe your culture values honor or glory or vengeance. Nationalist/ethnic/religious ideas are often intertwined.
#3 Uncertainty – “It’s a little bit like poker. And in that circumstance, you can’t really verify amidst this uncertainty. So just like in poker, when you’re not sure what hand your opponent holds, you might fold and you might decide sometimes it’s worth it to call — or escalate, then call.” - Blattman
#4 Commitment Problems – Closing windows of opportunity. If you feel like your rival will be much more powerful than you in the future, you’re much more willing to attack them now, to prevent them from getting in said position. In game theory, a commitment problem arises when two actors would be better off in the present by committing themselves to a cooperative relationship in the future. But, if the actors know that they will prefer to default on their agreement in the future, fighting is more likely.
#5 Misperceptions – Jumping to the worst conclusions about your opponent, basically cognitive distortions that make fighting more likely. It makes it seem like CBT would be a useful solution to this, and it actually does seem to help! Other misperceptions arise from failing to put oneself in the mindset of a rival, not thinking of all the possible reasons why someone might have done what they’ve done (mindreading), etc.
Fair, Thoughtful, Realistic, & Inspiring
https://www.amazon.com/Why-We-Fight-Roots-Paths/dp/1984881574/ref=asc_df_1984881574/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=532786031661&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12746201875372714442&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9009731&hvtargid=pla-1393166428510&psc=1